After 100 matches and more than a month of captivating football, the FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its defining stage with only four teams standing. It’s a historic semi-final line-up in more ways than one. For the first time since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992, the top four ranked teams in the world – France, Argentina, Spain and England – have advanced to the last four of the World Cup. It is also the first time since the 1990 edition that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, underscoring the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.Much has been debated over the past month about who will emerge victorious from the first 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament expanded to include a record 104 matches and 32 knockout matches. There have been surprise packages, giant killings and emotional exits along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are exactly who the FIFA rankings suggest they should be.After six rounds of football – three group stage matches, followed by the Round of 32, Round of 16 and quarter-finals – the world’s top four teams remain just two wins away from lifting the most coveted trophy in world football.The semifinal schedule promises two sticky contests. Spain face France in Arlington, Texas on July 15, while defending champions Argentina take on England in Atlanta on July 16. The undefeated teams will compete for third place in Miami on July 19, before the champions are crowned in the finals at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.
Who are the favorites? The betting markets offer a clue
With four football heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions among fans is simple: Who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. Two of the biggest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, attracted huge interest throughout the tournament, with a combined betting volume of more than $5.3 billion in various FIFA World Cup markets. About $4.2 billion was bet on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi in predictions ranging from the winner of the tournament and the Golden Boot to the Golden Ball, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate prediction markets have also been created for each semi-final, offering an insight into how fans expect the final four to unfold.According to Kalshi, France will enter the semi-final against Spain as favourites, with a 59% chance of reaching the final compared to Spain’s 41%. More than $9 million was wagered on that particular result.The second semi-final is seen as significantly closer. England hold a narrow lead over defending champions Argentina, with the Three Lions given a 54% chance of progressing compared to Argentina’s 46%. About $2.8 million was bet on that market alone.Polymarket reflects a similar trend. The platform also favors a France vs England final, with much more money exchanged on the France-Spain semi-final ($7.6M) than on Argentina vs England ($1M).
France emerged as a clear favorite for the title
When it comes to the overall winner, the betting markets favor France.Across both prediction platforms, around 39% of bets have backed Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus the clear favorites going into the final week.The battle behind them is much tighter. England are second favourites, attracting around 22% of predictions, only marginally ahead of Spain, which accounts for around 21%.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is the view of the market of Argentina. Despite being the defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least fancied of the remaining four teams, with only around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend their title.A total of $4 billion was bet on the tournament winner category in Polymarket, while almost $1.2 billion was bet on Kalshi.Polymarket’s projected final combinations also reflect France’s preferred status. A France vs England final is considered the most likely outcome, carrying an estimated probability of 35%. A repeat of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is seen as the second most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain vs England (21%) and Spain vs Argentina (20%).
The Golden Boot race remains finely balanced
The race for the Golden Boot has become one of the most fascinating subplots of the tournament.In the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are tied at the top of the scoring charts with eight goals each, while Harry Kane remains in contention with six.The betting markets heavily favor Mbappe to finish as the tournament’s top scorer. More than $55 million was bet on the Golden Boot market in Polymarket, with another $16 million on Kalshi.Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi trails with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane remains a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With all the main contenders still alive in the tournament, the Golden Boot race is expected to go straight to the finals.
The Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races are heating upThe race for the Golden Ball, awarded to the best player of the tournament, also attracted significant attention.About $7 million was bet on Polymarket and $3.3 million on Kalshi in this category. Mbappe (56% in Playmarket & 61% in Kalshi) leads the betting again, while Messi (34% & 31%) remains his closest challenger. England star Jude Bellingham (18% on both) is also firmly in contention after another outstanding campaign.For the Best Young Player award, Spanish sensation Lamine Yamal emerged as the overwhelming favourite. The teenager enjoys 42% support on Polymarket and 46% on Kalshi, ahead of Frenchman Desire Doue, while Spanish defender Pau Cubarsi completes the top three.The Golden Glove race is equally competitive. French goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting with around 37-38% support on both platforms, just ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award has generated considerable interest among bettors. Norway, despite their elimination, remain heavy favorites to claim the honour, attracting around 90% of predictions across both betting platforms.